Whenever journalists and activists for democratic change get together to name a movement, it’s time to hunker down in the tall grass. In 2004 we had the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which had been preceded by the Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia, and even the Yellow Revolution in the Philippines and later the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon.
While the U.S. had a dirty hand in all of the above, none worked out well for our foreign policy. In Ukraine, more than $160 million of your taxes was spent to overturn a flawed, but accurate, election only to produce a lazy, incompetent leader for the sole reason of tweaking the Russians. In Georgia, it was much the same thing. Foreign policy leaders and the NGO community pushed out an old Soviet foreign minister who had been very helpful in reaching Détente with the U.S. at the height of the Cold War in order to install an American-educated, but deeply-imperfect leader. Our man in Georgia ended up being more autocratic than any Soviet leader and nearly caused WWIII in 2008 when he decided to take bazooka shots at the Russians.
In Lebanon, following the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, U.S. policy wonks were giddy because of public uprisings aimed at pushing out the Syrian army and removing the influence Syria had on Lebanese affairs. Free elections and the removal of Syrian troops were called for during months of protests. Ultimately, the troops left and Lebanon got the free elections they demanded. For all their trouble, Syrians, through their surrogates in Hezbollah, killed a bunch of people (targeting Christians) and Hezbollah became the leading elected force which now controls Lebanon with the (ironic) military support of Syria and Iran. This hasn’t been a good thing for America, Israel and least of all the Lebanese people.
Early in the year, protests that began in Tunisia to oust an unpopular leadership led to what was been dubbed the Arab Spring. Uprisings moved to Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. Three of the uprisings, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, have led to a change in government from either an ally of the U.S. or at least a benign leader, to countries now run by the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the oldest anti-West, pro Sharia Law movements in the Middle East. As awful as the dictators ousted during the uprisings were (including the murder of one leader), they will seem like Laissez-Faire governments compared to the rules that will be laid down once Sharia Law goes into full affect. As for the stability of the region, Egypt was the only country sharing a border with Israel that demonstrated a modicum of respect for its simple existence. Lebanon once did before Hezbollah took control and now it’s a launching pad for hundreds of mortar rockets into Israel.
The Syrian army has butchered Syria’s revolutionaries and organizers have been rounded up by Syrian intelligence services, never to be heard from again. Despite strongly worded demands by the U.S., Europe and the New York Times, Syrian President al-Assad has opted to stay in power. I guess strongly worded statements don’t carry the same clout they once did.
And now to Russia and, with this, the pissing off of many of my friends who either live there or work there. Rallies have been held around the country to protest the obviously fixed elections by the Putin-led government. It’s been dubbed the Russian Winter since any revolutionary movement needs a name.
Most insiders think Putin’s United Russia party received just 30% of the vote instead of the offically reported 50%. But the same insiders, along with the pundits and reporters, never mention whom the votes were stolen from. Most would assume votes were siphoned from well-intentioned, democratic-minded candidates. That side of the fence wasn’t even on the ballot due to earlier election fraud and there’s no telling how they would have done had they been represented on the ballot.
The true losers due to vote theft were socialists, Communists and hardline nationalists. This group represents voters who believe Putin doesn’t show enough Stalinist traits, to others who want him to head to the Caucuses and purge a million or so minorities, and still more who just feel Russia needs to move back to Five Year Plans and the Workers’ Paradise. As much as official U.S. policy wants to continue sticking a thumb in Putin’s eye, I think most would agree his government of kleptomaniacs is preferable to the government programs that impoverished nearly a million people at the height of the Cold War.
I know the true democrats in Russia well and I would have been out protesting at their side if I thought it would do any good. These guys are modern thinkers; practical and not into being elected for the purpose of taking 5% off the top for every barrel of oil Russia sells. But they are a true minority who often find difficulty agreeing on a coherent message among themselves. And, in order to march in the protests, I would need to brush shoulders with Bolsheviks (carrying Bolshevik flags that the eagle eyes in the media don’t seem to notice) and ultra-nationalists (carrying three-legged Nazi flags that the eagle eyes in the media don’t seem to notice) and I’d be standing with very few of the democrats because most of them were already in jail.
Don’t get me wrong (especially you Russians). There is need for a change in Russia. But it is change of the organic type that happens over years of disappointment with the current regime and even a change in generations. History hasn’t produced happy results through brute force for change, particularly recent history as I adroitly point out in the magnificent piece. And it certainly hasn’t produced good results that have been helpful for American interests around the world.
It’s far better for our policy makers to keep an eye on the mess that’s stinking up our own country, support our allies as best we can, continue to trade with countries that may not be friendly, but there is a strategic value engaging in trade (or we owe them trillions of dollars). It would be far more prudent to end the foreign policy that an enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine and stay directly and indirectly out of the radical change that this year has brought. Although if the Tea Party wants to start something over here, well ……
