The DC Way Of Thinking

Washington, DC – There is a now famous map of the United States in which three-quarters is taken up by Washington, DC and the balance is labeled “everywhere else.” The map is aptly titled, “Washington’s View Of The World.”

Sitting here in a hotel room outside Washington and earning guilt points off of Italiphil (long story), I can attest to the map’s accuracy. People who live in the area feel they are at the epicenter of all that is important, and the rest of us – those who live in the quaint area they call “Flyover Country” – just can’t comprehend the complexities of real world events.

All the chit chat here is about the upcoming midterm elections. Well, perhaps chit chat is not the correct description. The elections are the only thing discussed here and the anticipation is worse than a house full of kids on Christmas Eve.

And here’s the view around here: The democrats will retake control of the House by a wide margin and the Senate will be 50/50 or, in their greatest hopes, a democrat majority. There is glee in the streets from democrat supporters who have drooled over such happenings for 12 years. The only problem with the projections is, one still has to step over the glee left from John Kerry’s certain win in 2004. The democrats are still whining over exit polls showing Kerry would be President Kerry by a comfortable margin and, rather than attempt to figure out the holes in their polling, are focused on the evils of computerized voting machines and the even more evil Ken Blackwell, the republican Secretary of State in Ohio where all was lost. In fact, there are many democrats who have not stopped their mumbling over Katherine Harris and Florida from six years ago.

All of us have been hearing for at least a year now about polls showing the popular surge of democrats. Republicans are toast, so the storyline goes. In this town, the polls are the only bible that is read and the results have become gospel. In fact, a democrat friend of mine wondered why an election is even needed; just give the win to the democrats and save the republicans from certain embarrassment.

In an environment where polls are conducted by news organizations to create news, it’s difficult to blame the democrats; the overall results look good. But the raw polling numbers are the real problem for the democrats who may again find themselves left at the altar by the voters. The key to all polls are what are known as the “cross tabs” and the “sample,” and in nearly every case, these important points are being ignored by democrats and the media once again.

Cross tabs are the assumed variables in a poll such as partisan beliefs, ethnicity, sex, income, age, etc., and the sample is the weighting of the respondents’ political affiliation and other known factors. When dealing with the most accurate polls of likely voters, the sample and cross tabs can be highly scientific and pollsters take into account dozens of previous elections to build their models. Since 1992, pollsters have oversampled democrats based on party preference stated in exit polls. Over the last 14 years, the oversample for democrats has been as low as 2 percent, but never higher than 4 percent and until recently, these polls have been statistically accurate.

This year has been far different. Major polling companies, including those used most prominently by the affiliate networks, have been oversampling democrats from 5 percent to as much as 11 percent. I have yet to read the reason for this, but it goes against all common sense to suddenly change a successful voting model. Naturally the results favor democrats, which makes news, which fuels more speculation about a huge leftward swing among voters. But it also means the polls are very likely inaccurate.

What is surprising is that this is inside political stuff that this town thrives on and most of the rest of us aren’t aware of. And it’s being ignored by the supposed democrat experts who are too busy figuring out which office to take from their republican counterparts to understand the dangers of believing their own conceits.

The other thing this town doesn’t understand is the issues that are important to most voters who don’t share the DC value system. This has best been demonstrated lately by the George Allen/Jim Webb Senate race in Virginia and the Mark Foley “scandal.”

Allen has been accused of using the “N” word dozens of years ago and using the term “Macaca” as a racial slur. When an old college football teammate of Allen’s revealed he heard him use the “N” word, there were five front page stories about it in the Washington Post and several others inside the paper. Webb jumped in the polls based on the news and there was a lot to tsk tsking by the smart people in DC who viewed this as earthshaking evidence of Allen’s lack of fitness to remain in office..

The same was true about Mark Foley. His goofball instant messages with House pages – which amounted to nothing more than pathetic longing and suggestive comments – was deemed to be a certain stain (pardon the pun) on the entire Republican Party, leading them to an ignominious defeat this November. Again, this is how things were viewed here.

The same bunch of smart people who feel republicans should be so ashamed by the actions of their own candidates that they shouldn’t bother voting, viewed the American people as prudes when President Clinton had his dalliances in the White House (sex is a private thing, in this instance), Gary Studds had a sexual relationship with his 17-year-old male page (the age of consent is 16 here in enlightened Washington) and Barney Frank had several staffers arrested for running a gay prostitution ring out of his Capitol office with his knowledge and enjoyment. To the Washingtonian, the difference between the actions of democrats and that of republicans is that republicans preach family values and the democrats have always valued the cad in the genes of their leaders. And they think you believe the same thing and ought to punish the republicans for poorly imitating the democrats.

This double standard was drilled home yesterday during a conversation with my partner, a lifelong democrat, and one of my employees, a republican who intends to vote straight party ticket for the democrats in one week. A republican consultant (and the brother of perhaps the most prominent democrat pundit) and I were talking about the publishing of bizarre passages of Jim Webb novels as widely reported in the Drudge Report. http://www.drudgereport.com/flashaw.htm. I am not even sure if Webb’s writings qualify as bizarre as they may fall more into clinical illness categories. Two things come to mind with what he wrote: as something of a writer myself, I know you would have to think these things to write about them and, who saw fit to publish this guy?

At any rate, the two of us were shaking our heads in disgust while the democrat and the faux republican were alternating between defending free speech rights and characterizing what Webb wrote as fiction and in no way defined his character. On the other hand, Foley’s internet messages were nothing to do with free speech, did define his character (of course he resigned over it, rather than seek higher office as is the case with Webb), and that George Allen’s words two decades ago – denied vehemently – were worthy of major consideration in this election.

That’s the way they really think in this town where nearly all the major news organizations and pundits are based. I don’t know what will really happen November 7 as some of this icky stuff from Washington may have rubbed off on me, but I do know that whatever happens, the people here in Washington won’t understand the belief system of we minor thinkers. But if I had to venture a guess, I believe the democrats will be scratching their heads on November 8 and wondering what happened to their insurmountable lead. And that’s what happens when you live in a city that is nothing more than an echo chamber of myopic political viewpoints. They just don’t understand the rest of us and I think it will cost them again.